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Country Reports

Brazil Country Report

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Risk Level

Low
Moderate
Elevated
High
Very High
Severe
Extreme

Overview

Executive Summary

Jair Bolsonaro of the far-right PSL was sworn in as president on 1 January 2019, following Brazil’s most polarised presidential election since the return to democracy in 1985. His cabinet, particularly the economic team, is pro-business and, except for the foreign relations minister, liked by the markets. However, the Bolsonaro government has still to outline how it plans to reduce the country’s unsustainable fiscal deficit and pass critically important pension reform, crucial to controlling rapidly growing public debt. The main concern is over implementation and whether the government, which counts on fewer than 30% of Lower House seats, can form a solid coalition to permit the approval of economic reforms. This is a highly inexperienced government; the selection of the heads of the Lower House and the Senate in early February will be a key indicator of whether this will persist. Successful negotiations by PSL with potential Congressional allies would indicate enhanced scope for governability. Brazil’s external position is strong: the current account deficit is small, while the country held ample foreign exchange reserves amounting to USD380 billion at the end of 2018. Market sentiment has improved since Bolsonaro’s election: he is considered by market practitioners to be pro-business and favourable to the urgently needed fiscal adjustments. The Brazilian real has appreciated recently, but fiscal challenges remain significant. IHS Markit forecasts a fiscal deficit of 7.6% of GDP in 2019, with the primary fiscal position, which has been in deficit since 2014, showing no signs of reversal. IHS Markit forecasts modest GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019 respectively. Slow growth and potential delays or failure to implement critical fiscal reforms risk loss of investor confidence, threatening an upward spike in Brazil’s funding costs, reduced debt-market access, and a sharp downward correction to equity valuations, encouraging large-scale portfolio withdrawals and renewed currency pressure. © 2019, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Last update: January 3, 2019

Operational Outlook

Brazil is open to foreign direct investment; the left-wing governments that governed between 2003 and 2016 favoured strong state intervention in the economy and stringent local content in the oil sector. Trade protectionism has been salient feature in Brazil. The current government of Jair Bolsonaro has embarked on an economically liberal agenda, including easing of regulations for foreign participation in airport, railways, highways and port concessions as well as privatisation of the electricity sector. Other sectors benefiting from liberalisation are oil and gas, particularly the pre-salt. The Bolsonaro government, inaugurated in January 2019, is also seeking approval of a pension reform as part of its pro-business agenda.

Last update: January 17, 2019

Terrorism

Elevated

There are no known terrorist groups in Brazil; however, organised crime poses significant threats to state security, targeting police. These gangs, which are heavily armed and control slum areas in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and other major capitals, in addition to attacking police stations also conduct arson attacks against buses as well as commercial establishments as retaliation against police raids. The increase in gang criminality in Rio de Janeiro and more recently in the state of Ceará has forced the federal government to order temporary military interventions.. The gangs’ footprint also extends to transnational drug trafficking particularly along the border with Paraguay and the northeast. .

Last update: January 17, 2019

War Risks

Brazil’s relations with its neighbours are very friendly; however, it has prioritised deployment of the military and police along its borders to curb crime – including drug trafficking, gun running, and illegal mining and logging. To counter transnational threats, it has engaged its neighbours via security co-operation agreements, particularly with Colombia, Paraguay, and Peru. More recently, deployment has been stepped up on the border with Venezuela to contain refugee inflows. Further afield it has struck agreements with West African states to curb shared threats, such as smuggling of drugs and sea piracy. Brazil has also contributed to UN peacekeeping operations; the latest, in Haiti, ended in September 2017.

Last update: January 17, 2019

Social Stability

High

Labour unions strongly oppose the austerity measures announced by the new Bolsonaro government, inaugurated in January 2019. These will include a pension and a labour reform as well as privatisation of the electricity sector. A proposed fiscal adjustment that will result in cuts to public expenditure in health and education as well as job losses in the public sector would be triggers of unrest. Such measures are likely to be resisted through street protests. Truck drivers’ strikes over fuel prices are becoming common. Demands for land redistribution will continue to be a driver of occupations of large rural states.

Last update: January 17, 2019

Health Risk

Severe

Vaccines Required to Enter the Country

Yellow fever: A yellow fever vaccination certificate is required for travelers arriving from Angola or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A single dose of YF vaccine is sufficient to confer sustained life-long immunity against the disease; it should be taken ten days in advance to be fully effective.

Vaccines Recommended for All Travelers

Routine vaccinations: Consult your doctor to ensure all routine vaccinations - such as for diphtheria, tetanus, polio, tuberculosis, influenza, measles, mumps, pertussis, rubella, varicella, etc. - are up to date (include booster shots if necessary).

Vaccines Recommended for Most Travelers

Hepatitis A: The vaccine is given in two doses, six months apart, and is nearly 100 percent effective. The WHO recommends the vaccine be integrated into national routine immunization schedules for children aged one year or older.

Typhoid fever: The typhoid fever vaccine can be administered via injection (administered in one dose) or orally (four doses). The vaccine is only 50-80 percent effective, so travelers to areas with a risk of exposure to typhoid fever, a bacterial disease, should also take hygienic precautions (e.g. drink only bottled water, avoid undercooked foods, wash hands regularly, etc.). Children can be given the shot beginning at two years of age (six for the oral vaccine).

Vaccines Recommended for Some Travelers

Hepatitis B: The WHO recommends that all infants receive their first dose of vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 hours. The birth dose should be followed by two or three doses to complete the primary series. Routine booster doses are not routinely recommended for any age group.

Malaria: There is currently no malaria vaccine. However, various antimalarial prophylactics are available by prescription and can reduce risk of infection by up to 90 percent. Different medications are prescribed depending on the risk level and the strains of the virus present in the destination. Antimalarial tablets need to be taken throughout the trip to be effective and may need to be taken for as long as four weeks following the trip.

Rabies: The rabies vaccination is typically only recommended for travel to remote areas and if the traveler will be at high risk of exposure (e.g. undertaking activities that will bring them into contact with dogs, cats, bats, or other mammals). The vaccination is administered in three doses over a three-to-four week period. Post exposure prophylaxis is also available and should be administered as soon as possible following contact with an animal suspected of being infected (e.g. bites and scratches).

Yellow fever: A yellow fever vaccination certificate is generally recommended for travelers to the states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Distrito Federal (including the capital Brasília), Goiás, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, and Tocantins states; designated areas of Bahia, Paraná, Piauí, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo; and Iguazu Falls.

Last update: October 11, 2018

Natural Risks

Very high

Much of the country is vulnerable to torrential rains and consequent flooding and landslides, including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. The rainy season in the south and southeast of the country runs from November until March, and from April to July in the northeast.

Last update: February 13, 2018

Transportation

Elevated

Brazil has high rates of road accidents (22.5 road fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants per year) due to aggressive driving habits and poor maintenance of some roads. The quality of road conditions varies considerably from one area to another, but nearly 60 percent of Brazilian highways reportedly need repair.

Rates of petty and violent crime are high on public transportation in cities. The Rio and São Paulo metros are relatively safe but often overcrowded, leaving riders vulnerable to pickpocketing and unwanted sexual contact. Crime committed against car and bus passengers on the road remains a problem for both visitors and local residents, especially during evening travel and traffic jams (see CRIME section).

For safety reasons, only licensed taxis or chauffeured cars (e.g. Uber) should be used (see SECURITY section).

It is advisable to travel by air for any long trips; no Brazilian airlines are featured on the European Union's "blacklist" of airlines banned from EU airspace due to substandard security practices.

Last update: February 13, 2018

Practical Information

Climate

Given the vast size of the Brazilian territory, it is not surprising the climate varies throughout the county. Generally speaking, the months of December, January, and February are the hottest months (between 30°C and 40°C) with high levels of humidity and brief but frequent rain showers, particularly in the southeast (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro). Winters in this region are mild and nights are often cool, particularly in Sao Paulo.

In the north of the country (Amazonia), the climate is tropical - hot and humid - with a rainy season (January to May) and a relatively dry season (June to October). In the Northeast Region the climate is temperate throughout the year (22°C to 28°C) with frequent rain showers from December to March. Inland climates are hot and very dry. The southern coast (Porto Alegre) enjoys a Mediterranean climate (hot summers, mild to cool winters). The highlands experience a cold winter with occasional snowfall.

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +55
Police: 147
Fire Dept.: 193

Electricity

Voltage: 110/220 V ~ 60 Hz

Outlets:

Last update: November 19, 2013