China Country Report
The "two sessions" meeting in March 2018 significantly weakened China's executive government and strengthened the influence of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Establishment of the National Supervision Commission will impose party allegiance over CPC members and government officials, as well as state-owned enterprises and private companies. The reshuffle will probably result in party-aligned ministries with stronger enforcement of CPC-directed mandates. In the one-year outlook, China is likely to experience increased momentum in addressing policy issues and strengthening party integrity. Structural reforms combining selected economic liberalisation with market interventions will probably continue.
The Chinese government plans to significantly increase connectivity across the country, including railways, expressways, and telecommunications. Mobile phone and internet penetration levels are high, approaching developed-world levels in major cities. Despite an ongoing crackdown, corruption remains a systemic problem. Foreign companies selling directly to Chinese consumers have been targeted for anti-trust investigations in the past, although no major new cases have been initiated since 2015. However, increasing regulation of VPN services, the recent cyber security law, and extensive censorship will increasingly affect foreign firms' ability to conduct business efficiently.
Despite a July 2018 incident involving the detonation of an improvised explosive device (IED) near the US embassy in Beijing's Chaoyang district, there is generally a low likelihood of IED attacks in China. The risk of terrorist attacks is small and restricted mostly to Xinjiang. Isolated attacks by Uighur militants will target government officials and the police with knives and at most crude IEDs in Kashgar, Hotan, and Aksu. Additional security in Xinjiang's capital, Urumqi, further mitigates risk in the region despite the greater number of potential targets.
IHS Markit does not expect any major military escalations in 2018 from the current pattern of occasional naval harassments. China-Taiwan relations will probably worsen, leading to increased military activities near Taiwan. China's continued assertion of claims to most of the South and East China seas and construction of military facilities will continue to aggravate its neighbours. The recent completion of infrastructure on disputed South China Sea man-made islands incrementally increases interstate war risks between China and the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
Land acquisition without full engagement of local stakeholders increasingly faces protests, especially in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan. Given that the government is taking steps to mitigate a repeat of violent protests by making party officials more accountable towards environmental protection, future protests will probably be localised and less violent. The chances of protests, mostly in the form of marches and blockades, will remain high regarding major infrastructure construction, nuclear energy, mining, as well as oil and gas.
Vaccines Required to Enter the Country
Yellow fever: There is no risk of contracting yellow fever in China. However, the government requires proof of vaccination for travelers arriving from countries with a risk of yellow fever transmission. A single dose of YF vaccine is sufficient to confer sustained life-long immunity against the disease.
Vaccines Recommended for All Travelers
Routine vaccinations: Consult your doctor to ensure all routine vaccinations - such as for diphtheria, tetanus, polio, tuberculosis, influenza, measles, mumps, pertussis, rubella, varicella, etc. - are up to date (include booster shots if necessary).
Vaccines Recommended for Most Travelers
Hepatitis A: The vaccine is given in two doses, six months apart, and is nearly 100 percent effective. The WHO recommends the vaccine be integrated into national routine immunization schedules for children aged one year or older.
Typhoid fever: The typhoid fever vaccine can be administered via injection (administered in one dose) or orally (four doses). The vaccine is only 50-80 percent effective, so travelers to areas with a risk of exposure to typhoid fever, a bacterial disease, should also take hygienic precautions (e.g. drink only bottled water, avoid undercooked foods, wash hands regularly, etc.). Children can be given the shot beginning at two years of age (six for the oral vaccine).
Vaccines Recommended for Some Travelers
Hepatitis B: The WHO recommends that all infants receive their first dose of vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 hours. The birth dose should be followed by two or three doses to complete the primary series. Routine booster doses are not routinely recommended for any age group.
Japanese encephalitis: Japanese encephalitis is typically only present in rural areas. Discuss travel plans with your doctor to decide if you need the JE vaccine, which is administered in two doses spaced over a month. The last dose should be administered at least ten days prior to departure for an at-risk area to be fully effective.
Rabies: The rabies vaccination is typically only recommended for travel to remote areas and if the traveler will be at high risk of exposure (e.g. undertaking activities that will bring them into contact with dogs, cats, bats, or other mammals). The vaccination is administered in three doses over a three-to-four week period. Post exposure prophylaxis is also available and should be administered as soon as possible following contact with an animal suspected of being infected (e.g. bites and scratches).
A relatively high risk of various natural disasters threaten certain parts of this vast country. Seismic activity is particularly common northwest of the Beijing, along the border between Shanxi and Hebei provinces, and in the autonomous regions of Interior Mongolia and Tibet. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 hit Sichuan province (center-west), causing more than 80,000 deaths and significant damage to infrastructure. Over the past ten years, China has experienced nine earthquakes with magnitudes at or above 7.6 on the Richter scale. Additionally, coastal areas can be hit with tsunamis triggered by earthquakes.
Heat waves are regular occurrences in the summer months; temperatures higher than 40°C (104°F) are often recorded in the cities of Shanghai and Chongqing, as well as in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Fujian provinces.
Starting February 2017, foreigners entering China could be subject to fingerprinting upon arrival. This measure will be put in place progressively at international ports and airports for international travelers between the ages of 14 and 70.
Security and travel conditions in the autonomous region of Tibet can deteriorate quickly due to protests and ensuing repression by security forces. Additionally, the issuance of visas required for travel to Tibet, where tensions are currently high (nearly 150 cases of self-immolation have been reported in recent years), is often restricted and may even temporarily suspended by the authorities, generally without warning.
A number of Western governments advise against travel to Xinjiang (formerly East Turkestan), a region strictly controlled by security forces.
It should be noted that since January 1, 2013, citizens of 45 countries can obtain a 72-hour transit visa in Beijing (at the airport) as well as in Shanghai (at Hongqiao and Pudong airports). These visas can also be obtained in Canton (Baiyun Airport) as of August 1, 2013, in Chengdu (Shuangliu Airport) as of September 1, 2013, in Shenyang and Dalian (Liaoning province, Taoxian and Zhoushuizi airports) as of January 1, 2014, at Guilin (Liang Jiang airport) since July 28, 2014, at Kunming (Changshui airport) since October 1, 2014, at Hangzhou (Xiaoshan airport) since October 20, 2014, and at Harbin (Taiping airport) since August 1, 2015.
This benefit is reserved for passengers who are traveling to a third country via China. In order to benefit from the measure, passengers must have a valid ticket for a third country, and, if applicable, a visa for this third country. Furthermore, when traveling to their third country destination, passengers must depart from the same Chinese airport they arrived at and do so within 72 hours of arriving.
In the northeast, the climate is continental: winters (November to April) are very cold and dry while summers are very hot and humid; it rains daily in the months of July and August. Sandstorms can strike Beijing in mid-April. The northwest is arid with cold and dry winters and very hot and dry summers. The climate in the south, where the rainy season lasts from June until September, is tropical; winters are mild and humid and summers are hot and rainy, often to the point of being stifling. In the center of the country, winters are cold and summers are very hot, even sweltering, and rainy, with high levels of humidity. Rainfall is the heaviest between June and September.
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