Country Reports

Ecuador Country Report

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Risk Level

Very High


Executive Summary

Although successful debt restructuring and a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will help to assuage Ecuador’s immediate liquidity difficulties, the ongoing challenges posed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-virus pandemic and declining oil prices will continue to endanger Ecuador’s economic recovery. President Lenín Moreno has stated that the government’s priorities for the funding will be to meet overdue payment obligations, strengthen economic reactivation programmes, and offer support to the most vulnerable. The government’s widening fiscal deficit in 2020 is likely to force it to implement spending cuts and reduce the size of the public sector to offset payments of transfers to low-income populations and aid to small businesses. The COVID-19-virus pandemic and decline in crude oil prices will significantly weaken Ecuador’s economy. After posting 1.3% real GDP growth in 2018 and modest revised growth in 2019, IHS Markit projects that GDP growth will decline by close to 9.0% in 2020, while the government continues to work on its fiscal adjustment strategy to cover large healthcare and social costs. According to IHS Markit preliminary numbers for August, negative growth could be larger than expected in the coming quarters. We assume weak oil prices in 2020–22, remaining below 2019 prices. The government is unpopular and was forced to backtrack from removing fuel subsidies, as advised by the IMF, in October 2019 following violent anti-government demonstrations. The worsening economic crisis, combined with the new IMF agreement and an elevated risk of civil unrest over the next year, will increase the probability of the Ecuadorean left uniting under a single candidate willing to renegotiate the country’s debt or deal with the IMF in the run-up to the February 2021 presidential election. The general election has been scheduled for February 2021, with a second round for the presidential election to take place in April.
Last update: September 17, 2020

Operational Outlook

Public and private labour strike risks are likely to increase in the 12-month outlook as the government struggles to bring the COVID-19 virus pandemic under control. Union membership is low, however the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples (Conaie) frequently acts as a catalyst for union activity. Although employees in ‘strategic sectors’ including hydrocarbons, electricity, and telecoms are not permitted to participate in industrial action, capacity to enforce this law is limited. Labour reforms introduced to address the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have proved highly unpopular and are likely to continue increasing strike risks. The risk of institutional corruption remains very high, despite the administration’s efforts to tackle the issue.

Last update: September 19, 2020



There are no known terrorist groups based in Ecuador. However, there is an isolated risk of terrorism incidents along the Colombian border. Dissidents of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) continue to operate in the provinces of Esmeraldas, and to a lesser extent, Sucumbíos. The last recorded terrorist attacks took place in 2018 committed by the Oliver Sinisterra between January and March in Las Esmeraldas. In response, the Ecuadorean and Colombian governments increased military co-operation along the border, killing the alleged leader of the group in December 2018. However, the group does not have political motivations in Ecuador to use explosives or target government assets.

Last update: July 25, 2020


Despite a broad trend towards declining violent crime in Ecuador under the administration of President Lenín Moreno, death and injury risks in Ecuador are rising. Although Ecuador has reported a 32% decrease in homicides and an 89% decrease in robberies during the pandemic compared to the same period in 2019, these decreases are likely a direct result of mobility restrictions and curfews implemented to control the spread of the virus. As a result, as restrictions ease homicide and crime rates are likely to increase. Ecuador is also a drug trafficking hub and as such, there is also a strong organised crime presence in Ecuador. However, levels of drug-related violence remain limited.

Last update: August 11, 2020

War Risks

War risks are likely to remain moderate in 2020. Co-operation and effective diplomatic channels between Ecuador and Colombia, and Ecuador and Peru limit interstate war risks in Ecuador. Ecuador’s last interstate war was in 1995 with Peru over the Amazonian Cenepa Valley, but the 1998 peace agreement defused diplomatic tensions and bilateral relations remain cordial. In May 2019, Ecuador and Colombia signed a biannual joint security plan to expand bilateral security co-operation until 2021 to combat FARC dissident activity in the border region. Troop deployments are likely to be limited to addressing violent protests and frustrating the activities of illegal armed groups operating along the Colombian border, including FARC dissidents.

Last update: July 25, 2020

Social Stability


Typically, social unrest in Ecuador is driven by union actions or by environmental activism. COVID-19 lowered the intensity of protests in Ecuador during the first and second quarters of 2020, but these are likely to increase as restrictions begin to ease. After the peak of COVID-19 cases passes, concerns about food availability, inefficiency in the healthcare system, discontent over job losses, and austerity measures imposed to deal with a liquidity crisis will likely fuel social unrest, including looting in the 12-month outlook. The public has generally complied with lockdown restrictions, but socially distanced, non-disruptive protests have taken place with unions and indigenous organisations calling for further action as the lockdown ends.

Last update: July 28, 2020

Health Risk


Vaccines required to enter the country

No vaccinations are required to enter the country.

Vaccines recommended for all travelers

Routine vaccinations: Consult your doctor to ensure all routine vaccinations - such as for diphtheria, tetanus, polio, tuberculosis, influenza, measles, mumps, pertussis, rubella, varicella, etc. - are up to date (include booster shots if necessary).

Vaccines recommended for most travelers

Hepatitis A: The vaccine is given in two doses, six months apart, and is nearly 100 percent effective. The WHO recommends the vaccine be integrated into national routine immunization schedules for children aged one year or older.

Typhoid fever: The typhoid fever vaccine can be administered via injection (administered in one dose) or orally (four doses). The vaccine is only 50-80 percent effective, so travelers to areas with a risk of exposure to typhoid fever, a bacterial disease, should also take hygienic precautions (e.g. drink only bottled water, avoid undercooked foods, wash hands regularly, etc.). Children can be given the shot beginning at two years of age (six for the oral vaccine).

Vaccines recommended for some travelers

Hepatitis B: The WHO recommends that all infants receive their first dose of vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 hours. The birth dose should be followed by two or three doses to complete the primary series. Routine booster doses are not routinely recommended for any age group.

Malaria: There is currently no malaria vaccine. However, various antimalarial prophylactics are available by prescription and can reduce risk of infection by up to 90 percent. Different medications are prescribed depending on the risk level and the strains of the virus present in the destination. Antimalarial tablets need to be taken throughout the trip to be effective and may need to be taken for as long as four weeks following the trip.

Rabies: The rabies vaccination is typically only recommended for travel to remote areas and if the traveler will be at high risk of exposure (e.g. undertaking activities that will bring them into contact with dogs, cats, bats, or other mammals). The vaccination is administered in three doses over a three-to-four week period. Post exposure prophylaxis is also available and should be administered as soon as possible following contact with an animal suspected of being infected (e.g. bites and scratches).

Yellow fever: A yellow fever vaccination certificate is generally recommended for travelers to the following regions: areas over 2300 m (7500 ft) in elevation east of the Andes Mountains in the provinces of Morona-Santiago, Napo, Orellana, Pastaza, Sucumbios, and Zamora-Chinchipe. A single dose of YF vaccine is sufficient to confer sustained life-long immunity against the disease; it should be taken ten days in advance to be fully effective.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Natural Risks


Ecuador is vulnerable to a number of natural disasters due to its location along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a highly active seismic zone. Some 24 "active" or "potentially active" volcanoes are present in the country, in particular Cotopaxi, Sangay, Tungurahua, and Reventador, all of which erupt relatively often. Always heed instructions issued by local authorities when in the vicinity of volcanoes.

Similarly, earthquakes are common and can cause largescale damage and transportation disruptions, especially if landslides occur. In April 2016, a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale struck the northwest of the country, killing hundreds of people and leaving major material and infrastructural damages in its wake. More than a year later, the region is still in recovery. Offshore earthquakes also create the risk of tsunamis in coastal regions; in the event of such an earthquake, follow all instructions issued by local authorities (such as evacuation orders).

Flooding can occur year round but is particularly frequent during the rainy season, which begins in October and lasts until April/May, although this varies slightly by region.

Last update: April 5, 2019



When using taxis, use only licensed companies and avoid hailing taxis off the street. Drive with doors locked and windows rolled up.

Criminals frequently target intra- and inter-city buses, many of which are overcrowded and poorly maintained. Use secured buses, identifiable by a sticker placed on the sides and the windshield of the vehicle; these buses are equipped with surveillance cameras and a GPS system that allows local authorities to respond quickly in the event of a problem.

In any case, be vigilant when on buses, on which theft and other more serious crimes are regularly reported. It is advisable to avoid taking buses after sundown, particularly in the regions of Manabí and Guayas.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Practical Information


Ecuador's climate is, unsurprisingly, largely equatorial. Along the coast temperatures and humidity levels are high throughout the year. Rain is more abundant in the period between December and April as well as in the north as compared to the south. Days are generally hot and nights cool, with little variation in temperatures from season to season.

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +593
Emergency Services: 911


Voltage: 120-127 V ~ 60 Hz


Last update: April 5, 2019