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India Country Report

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Risk Level

Low
Moderate
Elevated
High
Very High
Severe
Extreme

Overview

Executive Summary

The Bharatiya Janata Party consolidated its dominance of India's lower house in the 2019 election, largely because of the personal popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His renewed authority will ensure he is highly influential in all major ministries, probably under a smaller cabinet of Modi-loyalists. This is likely to facilitate the passage of legislation through the lower house, where opposition parties will remain weakened by their failed coalition in the May election.Modi's re-election will also likely lead to a relaxation of the increased military alert levels in India and Pakistan since February 2019, reducing the immediate risk of unintended military escalation. There will, however, be a very high likelihood of further incidents, including artillery exchanges and Indian airstrikes, in the Kashmir region during Modi's second term. Any escalation would likely remain contained to Kashmir and both sides would probably seek to target military assets (in the case of India, separatist militants) in Kashmir, as opposed to critical infrastructure, before seeking de-escalation.Modi's 2014 "Make in India" policy of liberalising investment in 25 sectors initially attracted surging capital inflows. However, these have slowed during the past year, while the rupee depreciated by 8% in 2018 on a real trade-weighted basis and India's perennially persistent fiscal deficit is currently projected to widen beyond 8% by 2020. Politically dangerous inflation also is accelerating, from 3% in 2017 to a forecast 6% in 2020.Nonetheless, India's young population of 1.3 billion continues to drive annual real GDP gains of around 7%, with private consumption accounting for almost 60% of GDP. The 2017 Goods and Services Tax harmonised India's plethora of state-based business taxes and will enhance growth once firms fully adapt to it. Tightening data localisation regulation will protect domestically based e-commerce. Further investment liberalisation is likely in additional sectors, even if a factionalised parliament slows the passage of the required legislation.
Last update: June 19, 2019

Operational Outlook

Industrial action against government policies and alleged business excesses is frequent, particularly in sectors like transport and textiles where trade unions are strong. In his second term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will quite probably attempt to pass his much-touted labour code, which includes legislation to simplify labour compliance requirements for businesses, but this is unlikely to pass given his party's upper house minority. Bribery demands during public procurement or while seeking contract clearances are frequent, particularly in the defence, shipping, and transport ministries, and in projects that involve land purchases. Recent amendments to India's anti-corruption law potentially hinder investigation of allegedly corrupt officials.

Last update: June 19, 2019

Terrorism

High

In Kashmir, the intensified recruitment of locals as militants in the ongoing separatist movement is likely to increase the sustainability of the conflict. Pakistan-based militant groups hold government and hospitality establishments, and public transport systems – particularly in major cities – as aspirational targets. Following the 2008 Mumbai attacks, however, improved preparedness of security forces has reduced the risk of terrorism-related incidents in India. In the states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha, Naxalite militancy (aimed against an allegedly oppressive Indian state) has been declining amid significant counter-terrorism operations. However, small-scale attacks targeting assets of mining and construction companies are likely to continue.

Last update: June 21, 2019

War Risks

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election will likely lead to a relaxation of the increased military alert levels in India and Pakistan since February 2019, reducing the immediate risk of unintended military escalation. There will, however, be a very high likelihood of further incidents, including artillery exchanges and Indian airstrikes, in the Kashmir region during Modi's second term. Another major Kashmiri separatist attack, for example, would build domestic pressure on Modi to respond aggressively against Pakistan. Any escalation would likely remain contained to Kashmir and both sides would probably seek to target military assets (in the case of India, separatist militants) in Kashmir, as opposed to critical infrastructure, before seeking de-escalation.

Last update: May 30, 2019

Social Stability

Very high

Protests across India's major towns and cities are likely to remain frequent, especially on issues related to agrarian distress and youth unemployment. Some other issues will probably include alleged land and environmental violations, labour policies, indigenous peoples' rights, and caste and religion-based discrimination. These protests usually last two to three days, potentially leading to road and rail blockades, and major traffic disruption. They are likely to turn violent if police action is deployed, including baton charges and the use of tear gas to disperse protesters. Protests against specific businesses are highly likely specifically where land rights and/or environmental issues are contested.

Last update: June 19, 2019

Health Risk

Severe

Vaccinations required to enter the country

Any traveler (except infants under nine months of age) arriving by air or sea without a yellow fever vaccination certificate will be detained in isolation for up to 6 days if that person:

arrives within 6 days of departure from an area with risk of yellow fever (YFV) transmission,has been in such an area in transit (except those passengers and members of flight crews who, while in transit through an airport in an area with risk of YFV transmission, remained in the airport during their entire stay and the health officer agrees to such an exemption),arrives on a ship that started from or touched at any port in an area with risk of YFV transmission up to 30 days before its arrival in India, unless such a ship has been disinfected in accordance with the procedure recommended by WHO, orarrives on an aircraft that has been in an area with risk of YFV transmission and has not been disinfected in accordance with the Indian Aircraft Public Health Rules, 1954, or as recommended by WHO.

The following are regarded as countries and areas with risk of YFV transmission:

Africa: Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Togo, and Uganda. Americas: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Panama, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.

Note: When a case of yellow fever is reported from any country, that country is regarded by the government of India as a country with risk of yellow fever transmission and is added to the above list.

Routine Vaccinations

Hepatitis A : a vaccine is available for anyone over one year of age. The vaccine may not be effective for certain people, e.g. those born before 1945 and who lived as a child in a developing country and/or have a past history of jaundice (icterus). These people can instead get a shot of immune globulin (IG) to boost their immunity against the disease.

Hepatitis B : a vaccine is available for children at least two months old.

Diphtheria-Tetanus-Polio : a booster shot should be administered if necessary (once every ten years).

Yellow Fever : a vaccine is available for children over the age of one year.

Other Vaccinations

Typhoid Fever: If your travels take you to regions with poor sanitary conditions (for children two years old and up).

Rabies: For prolonged stays in an isolated region (for children from when they can walk).

Meningococcal Meningitis: For prolonged stays, or in case your travels will put you in close contact with a local population affected by an epidemic of the disease (for children over the age of two years).

Japanese Encephalitis: For stays of longer than one month in a rural zone during the rainy season (for children over the age of one). The vaccine is administered in a local medical facility.

Malaria: Recommended preventive medication - chloroquine and proguanil (sometimes marketed as Paludrine ) or proguanil and atovaquone (sometimes marketed as Mepron); if traveling to Assam state, mefloquine (sometimes marketed as Lariam) or doxycycline (sometimes marketed as Vibramycin).

For Children: All standard childhood immunizations should be up-to-date. In the case of a long stay, the BCG vaccine is recommended for children over one month and the MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccine for children over nine months.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Natural Risks

Severe

As mentioned above, India is vulnerable to a number of natural risks. Monsoon season in the west and southwest lasts from June to September. West Bengal and Odisha states are particularly vulnerable to devastating cyclones (10,000 dead in 1999). Torrential rains can, among other things, disrupt transportation and cause significant flooding (e.g. 200 killed in Gujarat state in early August 2017; several hundred killed in Jammu and Kashmir in September 2014; 1.5 million people displaced and several hundred dead in October 2009 in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh states).

India is also situated in a highly active and potentially devastating seismic zone (a 7.6-magnitude earthquake hit Bhuj, Gujarat, in January 2001, leaving 15,000 dead and 160,000 wounded). The December 2004 tsunami that hit the eastern coast of the country left 30,000 dead or missing.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Transportation

Elevated

Roads in India tend to be in disrepair, aging, and often very congested, although modernization work is planned. The rail system, while cheap and extensive, is not always reliable or safe (accidents, frequent robberies, regular delays). Regarding air travel, it should be noted that on May 22, 2010, an Air India flight from Dubai to Mangalore crashed while approaching Mangalore, leaving 166 dead.

Visas are needed before travel, for any purpose, to India. Arriving without a visa or with an incorrect one may result in detention on arrival, deportation, or being blacklisted. Planned accommodations should be licensed with Indian government authorities. Length of stay for e-visas have been increased from 30 to 60 days as of April 1, 2017. Business visas cannot be extended inside India.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Infrastructure

Power shortages are common, such as the massive outage of July 30, 2012, that affected many states and left nearly 700 million Indians (one-tenth of the world's population) without electricity for several hours. Electricity production in the country is insufficient for its massive population and therefore rotating blackouts, which could pose an inconvenience for foreign travelers, are common.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Practical Information

Climate

In the north of the country (Ganges River Valley), summers begin in April, with temperatures reaching oppressive levels beginning in May. The monsoon arrives in June and stays until the end of September, during which period torrential rains are common. The climate is hot and dry from November until March. In mountainous regions, winters are harsh and summers are mild.

The center of the country is arid. Winters (November to March) are mild and dry. Sweltering heat arrives in April and monsoon season lasts from June until September. Outside of this period, rain is relatively rare and irregular.

In the south, the climate is hot and temperatures remain relatively constant throughout the year, rising as you approach the southern tip of the country. The western coast experiences a long rainy season (5-6 months) with heavy precipitation. In the southeast and the extreme south, the monsoon period lasts until November, or even December. The eastern coast is sometimes hit with cyclones (Bay of Bengal).

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +91
Police: 100
Fire Dept.: 100
Ambulance: 100

Electricity

Voltage: 230 V ~ 50 Hz

Outlets:

Last update: April 5, 2019