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Country Reports

Nicaragua Country Report

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Risk Level

Low
Moderate
Elevated
High
Very High
Severe
Extreme

Overview

Executive Summary

President Daniel Ortega is likely to remain in power over the next year despite continuing anti-government actions, including periodic national strikes demanding his resignation and early elections. Protests disrupting the operational environment and delaying supply chains from April–September 2018 began over social security reforms but expanded over demands for democratic freedoms. Police and paramilitary containment operations with repeated use of lethal force resulted in at least 325 deaths and over 3,000 injuries; most of the 700 political prisoners were released in June 2019. Nicaragua’s economic and political outlook will be influenced by the United States’ reaction to political disruptions in Venezuela and Nicaragua. US sanctions including certification that Nicaragua has not met NICA Act minimum standards increases the probability of US opposition to new loan approvals at multilateral financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. This is likely to increase project delays and cancellation risks for infrastructure, utility, and transportation development projects. Despite the government’s renewed hold on power, IHS Markit estimates Nicaragua’s economy entered recession in the second half of 2018 and this is likely to continue through 2019. Similarly, currency devaluation risks are driven by persistent capital outflows while continuing deposit withdrawals indicate deteriorating and increasingly severe liquidity issues in the banking sector. IHS Markit projects GDP shrinkage in 2019 of 4.2% and 1.0% in 2020.Protests in second-half 2019 are more likely if the economy weakens rapidly, exacerbated by internal stresses and falling FDI, although protesters will likely be emboldened to push for new concessions if the opposition gains power in Venezuela. Government-backed violence against political activists resulting in death or injury is also a likely protest catalyst. Resulting demonstrations are unlikely to reach 2018 levels as the Nicaraguan police have banned public marches and expanded their military-style crowd-control capacities.
Last update: August 20, 2019

Operational Outlook

The operational environment in Nicaragua includes a number of significant challenges including limited infrastructure and extensive corruption. Poor quality infrastructure, transport networks, and utilities are regularly tested by protests and labour strikes, as well as severe weather events. Corruption among officials, cronyism, and connection-dependent contract negotiations often result in discrimination against firms lacking political connections, as well as regulatory and judicial delays. Generally positive security and economic indicators over the last decade have been disrupted by extended anti-government protests that are unlikely to be fully resolved by 2020.

Last update: July 17, 2019

Terrorism

High

There are no terrorist groups but several organised criminal organisations operating in Nicaragua. Traffickers tend to be concentrated in the country's autonomous regions along the Atlantic coast due to poor police coverage and easy access to trafficking routes. Anti-government armed groups like the right-leaning 're-Contras' and territorial disputes between indigenous communities and settlers in these regions have typically been the main sources of armed violence in Nicaragua. There is a moderate risk that growing anti-government protests throughout the country will encourage self-styled insurgent groups to pursue violent activities to oppose President Daniel Ortega.

Last update: July 12, 2019

Crime

Nicaragua has the lowest homicide rate in Central America at 7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017. However, the outbreak of protests against the government in April 2018 and the police and paramilitary repression that followed has led to rising crime rates. The Nicaragua police reported that the homicide rate increased to 11 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 (an increase of 58.2%). Political violence has led to several violent deaths and resulted in many being injured by firearms. This, together with the rising poverty resulting from the political and socioeconomic crisis, will likely increase security risks over the next 12 months.

Last update: July 18, 2019

War Risks

Territorial disputes with Costa Rica and Colombia are unlikely to lead to armed conflict. A ruling on a maritime border dispute with Costa Rica from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) resulted in modest fines against Nicaragua in 2018. A lack of diplomatic resolution of a territorial dispute with Colombia increases the likelihood that fishing vessels will be seized and offshore oil concessions in the Caribbean may experience delays; although relations have improved since the removal of a 35% trade tariff on Colombian imports in March 2017. Colombia has a greater military capacity but open-war risks remain low.

Last update: July 12, 2019

Social Stability

Very high

Nationwide protests began on 18 April 2018 demanding the resignation of President Daniel Ortega and his executive, as well as democratic reforms and new elections for 2019. Large demonstrations ended since police and paramilitaries broke up roadblocks using lethal force and Ortega prohibited them for a few months, but smaller-scale ones will continue periodically along 2019. The social unrest has also resulted in periodic cargo disruptions and a reported increase in opportunistic robberies and theft. Politically driven social unrest is likely to continue, particularly in the capital Managua and departmental capitals where opposition support is strong.

Last update: July 18, 2019

Health Risk

Severe

Vaccines required to enter the country

No vaccinations are required to enter the country.

Vaccines recommended for all travelers

Routine vaccinations: Consult your doctor to ensure all routine vaccinations - such as for diphtheria, tetanus, polio, tuberculosis, influenza, measles, mumps, pertussis, rubella, varicella, etc. - are up to date (include booster shots if necessary).

Vaccines recommended for most travelers

Hepatitis A: The vaccine is given in two doses, six months apart, and is nearly 100 percent effective. The WHO recommends the vaccine be integrated into national routine immunization schedules for children aged one year or older.

Typhoid fever: The typhoid fever vaccine can be administered via injection (administered in one dose) or orally (four doses). The vaccine is only 50-80 percent effective, so travelers to areas with a risk of exposure to typhoid fever, a bacterial disease, should also take hygienic precautions (e.g. drink only bottled water, avoid undercooked foods, wash hands regularly, etc.). Children can be given the shot beginning at two years of age (six for the oral vaccine).

Vaccines recommended for some travelers

Hepatitis B: The WHO recommends that all infants receive their first dose of vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 hours. The birth dose should be followed by two or three doses to complete the primary series. Routine booster doses are not routinely recommended for any age group.

Rabies: The rabies vaccination is typically only recommended for travel to remote areas and if the traveler will be at high risk of exposure (e.g. undertaking activities that will bring them into contact with dogs, cats, bats, or other mammals). The vaccination is administered in three doses over a three-to-four week period. Post exposure prophylaxis is also available and should be administered as soon as possible following contact with an animal suspected of being infected (e.g. bites and scratches).

Malaria: There is currently no malaria vaccine. However, various antimalarial prophylactics are available by prescription and can reduce risk of infection by up to 90 percent. Different medications are prescribed depending on the risk level and the strains of the virus present in the destination. Antimalarial tablets need to be taken throughout the trip to be effective and may need to be taken for as long as four weeks following the trip.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Natural Risks

Severe

The rainy season (April/May to October/November) often brings floods, particularly in September and October.

Furthermore, hurricanes and tropical storms have the potential to hit the country between June and November, during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane Otto made landfall in the country in November 2016, causing infrastructural damage and resulting in several deaths.

Nicaragua is home to numerous active volcanoes including the Momotombo, Telica, Cerro, Masaya, and San Cristobal.

Earthquakes can strike at any time, notably along the Pacific Coast. There were a total of nine earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 or higher on the Richter scale in 2016. There is the risk of tsunamis in the event of an offshore earthquake.

The country, located in Central America's "Dry Corridor," regularly experiences droughts.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Infrastructure

Despite years of steady economic growth, Nicaragua remains an impoverished country, the second poorest in the Americas after Haiti. As such, transportation, electrical, medical, and tourist infrastructure is lacking, particularly outside of cities, and is highly vulnerable in the event of natural disasters.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Practical Information

Climate

Nicaragua's climate is tropical, hot, and humid. The rainy season lasts from May until October in the west of the country and until January along the Caribbean coast where hurricanes can strike between July and October. Torrential rain is not rare and often causes flooding. It rains much more along the Caribbean coast than in the center of the country or along the Pacific coast.

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +505
Police: 118
Fire Dept.: 118
Ambulance: 102

Electricity

Voltage: 120 V ~ 60 Hz

Outlets:

Last update: April 5, 2019