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Country Reports

Tanzania Country Report

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Risk Level

Low
Moderate
Elevated
High
Very High
Severe
Extreme

Overview

Executive Summary

President John Magufuli has centralised decision-making processes through the secretariat and central committee of his ruling Revolution Party (Chama Cha Mapinduzi: CCM). There is limited scrutiny of legislation. The CCM will likely dominate the November 2019 local polls, with Magufuli probably being reselected to contest the 2020 presidential election. The 2019/20 budget prioritises hydropower and railway construction, but government outlays for development projects are unlikely to meet budgeted totals, given weak revenue collection, which the government calculated at 87.4% of its target amount during the 2018/19 fiscal year. This poses a downside risk to IHS Markit's forecast that real economic growth in Tanzania will be 6.2% in 2019.Negotiations to develop a USD30-billion liquefied natural gas terminal are progressing slowly: Equinor, the lead negotiator with the government, has reportedly stated that it will not sanction the terminal until 2022. This reflects uncompetitive fiscal and regulatory terms of the proposed Host Government Agreement versus peer countries.Near-shore production-sharing agreements (PSAs) and off-take agreements are earmarked for renegotiation in 2019, as the government seeks greater participation and take. Renegotiations for deep-sea non-producing PSAs are also likely, but the government has stated that any changes should not "adversely" affect investors. This is because these contracts are already uncompetitive versus peer countries.Some communities in the Lindi, Pwani, and Tanga regions support Islamist militancy. Edged-weapon attacks by lone actors target government officials and police. Attacks are likely to become more frequent around the 2020 presidential and legislative elections. Cross-border gun attacks by Mozambique-based militants against villagers around Tandahimba near the Mozambican border are also likely.
Last update: November 23, 2019

Operational Outlook

Tanzania's anti-corruption agency has no independent authority to prosecute commercial cases and is controlled by the president. Demands for bribes and facilitation fees are increasing as the ruling party seeks rents to fund upcoming election campaigns in 2019 and 2020. We assess that these demands are primarily likely to target the business interests of factional rivals to the president from within the ruling Revolution Party. Outstanding high-profile corruption cases probably relate to road construction and power-purchasing arrangements – but so far have not advanced. Copper exports transported by rail from Zambia face disruption when train workers strike over pay disputes. Gold mines face disruption caused by probable retrenchment during 2019.

Last update: September 11, 2019

Terrorism

High

Small jihadist groups will probably form during 2019 and 2020, especially in the Mtwara, Pwani, and Tanga regions. The groups are supported by radical Salafist preachers. Hotspots are Mtwara, Masaguru, and Nanyumbu along the southeastern border with Mozambique, and between Kibiti and Mazomora in Tanzania's Pwani region. Edged-weapon and small-arms attacks targeting ruling party officials and the police will probably become more frequent leading up to Tanzania's presidential and legislative elections in October 2020. There are currently no indications of financing and training by other Islamist militant groups. Communities along the Tanzania-Mozambique border are integrated, facilitating the travel of militants (and attacks) in both countries.

Last update: November 29, 2019

Crime

Violent crime increasingly targets foreign expatriates and tourists in urban Tanzania, particularly the capital Dar es Salaam. Typical threats include express kidnap and the robbery of personal items. Extra-judicial vigilante groups have begun to form in the cities of Dar es Salaam and Mwanza to fight crime since 2013. Although somewhat effective, some of these forces undermine the rule of law.

Last update: November 5, 2019

War Risks

Tanzania is unlikely to intervene militarily in neighbouring Burundi's civil conflict after the Burundian president completed a constitutional referendum there in May 2018 that extended term limits from five years to seven. A dispute with Malawi over the sovereignty of Lake Nyasa is likely to be resolved through international arbitration, probably delaying a resolution. This delays Malawi's issuing of licences for oil and gas exploration beyond 2019 and increases the likelihood of low-level skirmishes between border patrols. However, military escalation by either side to interstate war is unlikely.

Last update: October 10, 2019

Social Stability

High

Security forces are likely to pre-empt and quickly disrupt any attempts by the main opposition parties to conduct protests during any by-elections and the late-November 2019 local polls. Protests are also triggered by the government arresting opposition members, especially in semi-autonomous Zanzibar. Riot police typically escalate to using lethal force. Separately, protests in Zanzibar would be triggered by any announcement that officially suspended the constitutional reform process. During election periods, including the 2020 presidential election, Zanzibar's protests are likely to involve arson attacks against ruling party offices, disrupting tourism.

Last update: September 14, 2019

Health Risk

Severe

Vaccinations required to enter the country

Proof of vaccination against yellow fever is required if traveling from a country with risk of yellow fever transmission and over one year of age.

Routine Vaccinations

Hepatitis A: A vaccine is available for anyone over one year of age. The vaccine may not be effective for certain people, e.g. those born before 1945 and who lived as a child in a developing country and/or have a past history of jaundice (icterus). These people can instead get a shot of immune globulin (IG) to boost their immunity against the disease.

Hepatitis B: A vaccine is available for children at least two months old.

Diphtheria-Tetanus-Polio: A booster shot should be administered if necessary (once every ten years).

Yellow Fever: A vaccine is available for children over the age of one year.

Other Vaccinations

Typhoid Fever: If your travels take you to regions with poor sanitary conditions (for children two years old and up).

Rabies: For prolonged stays in an isolated region (for children from when they can walk).

Meningococcal Meningitis: For prolonged stays, or in case your travels will put you in close contact with a local population affected by an epidemic of the disease (for children over the age of two years).

Malaria: Recommended preventive medication - mefloquine (sometimes marketed as Lariam) or doxycycline (sometimes marketed as Vibramycin).

For Children: All standard childhood immunizations should be up-to-date. In the case of a long stay, the BCG vaccine is recommended for children over one month and the MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccine for children over nine months.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Natural Risks

Very high

The Rift Valley, an active fault line, stretches through the center of the country (from the north to south) and minor tremors occur sporadically. The last significant earthquake (5.7-magnitude) occurred in September 2016 in Kagera region of northwest Tanzania.

Rainy seasons (March-May for the big rainy season and November-December for the small one) often result in deadly flooding, which also results in significant property and infrastructural damage. Emergency response efforts during natural disasters are restricted.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Transportation

Elevated

Visitors should be aware that roads in the country are in poor condition, and traffic laws are rarely followed or enforced. Renting a car is not advisable due to the high frequency of deadly accidents that occur. Most Western governments state that a very high level of vigilance is necessary along the Arusha-Nairobi route, while travel at night is especially advised against due to a high number of deadly accidents (4000 per year). Temporary fuel shortages are also fairly common. Emergency response services are for the most part non-existent, especially on rural interior roadways; be prepared to perform any necessary mechanical maintenance.

Public transportation should be avoided (buses, Bajaj three-wheeled taxis, and Boda Boda motorcycle taxis). Book a private car service or take taxis through a legitimate provider; do not take taxis hailed from the street.

In the past several years, there have been three disasters with ferries traveling between Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar and between the islands of Zanzibar, resulting in the death of hundreds of people. Travelers are advised to ensure that they are using a reputable ferry company, and not to board a ferry believed to be overloaded or unseaworthy.

Rail travel is uncomfortable, limited, and unreliable. There have also been a number of accidents on railways.

Last update: April 5, 2019

Infrastructure

Due to energy shortages, power outages occur with some regularity, including in Dar es Salaam. Water access may also be limited.  

Last update: April 5, 2019

Practical Information

Climate

Tanzania has a tropical climate with cooler temperatures in the highlands. The long rainy season lasts from March until May with more abundant precipitation along the coast and on the country’s islands. During this period temperatures are high (30-35°C), as are humidity levels. The long dry season lasts from June until October during which period rain is rare throughout the country; days tend to be sunny and pleasant. A second shorter rainy season is observed in November and December and a short dry season in January and February.

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +255
Police: 17
Fire Dept., Ambulance: 18

Electricity

Voltage: 230 V ~ 50 Hz

Outlets:

Last update: April 5, 2019