Lobito Corridor: Strategic supply chain | Contested security environment

The Lobito Corridor is entering a critical phase. GardaWorld Security Africa analysts highlight mounting security threats and political volatility across the Lobito Corridor as foreign investment ramps up. Infrastructure expansion is colliding with entrenched criminal networks, fragile governance, and rising militant risks—especially across Lualaba and Haut-Katanga. The corridor’s success will hinge not only on infrastructure delivery but on political alignment, stable governance, and coordinated regional security. As cobalt export bans reshape global supply chains and peace deals falter, operators face growing exposure to extortion, theft, and disruption. Despite long-term promise, near-term volatility could undermine confidence.

• Security threats rising as expanding infrastructure intersects with criminal networks
• Short-term environment remains highly volatile despite long-term corridor potential.
• Lobito potential lack of long-term reliability may undermine investor confidence.
• DRC's M23 offensive highlights broader regional fragility and meaningful peace deal guarantees.
• Cobalt export ban, tariffs and tightening supply will present additional market uncertainty ahead.

Read our full briefing on the geopolitical, economic, and operational risks shaping Africa’s most ambitious trade route.